Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Total Bangun Persada Tbk (TOTL.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18,184.72 - $21,438.77$20,084.73
Multi-Stage$12,321.61 - $13,560.68$12,929.20
Blended Fair Value$16,506.96
Current Price$845.00
Upside1,853.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%1.34%40.00100.0025.0010.0010.0040.0050.0045.0040.0030.00
YoY Growth---60.00%300.00%150.00%0.00%-75.00%-20.00%11.11%12.50%33.33%-14.29%
Dividend Yield--7.02%20.83%7.86%3.42%2.98%12.90%8.13%6.38%4.94%4.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)380,340.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)255,750.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)124,590.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76,068.1347,542.5828,525.55
Cash Retained (M)124,590.63124,590.63124,590.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-76,068.13-47,542.58-28,525.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)48,522.5077,048.0596,065.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,410.003,410.003,410.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.2322.5928.17
LTM Dividend per Share75.0075.0075.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.2322.5928.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend89.2397.59103.17
WACC / Discount Rate-0.28%-0.28%-0.28%
Growth Rate1.90%2.90%3.90%
Fair Value$18,184.72$20,084.73$21,438.77
Upside / Downside2,052.04%2,276.89%2,437.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)380,340.63391,365.30402,709.53414,382.59426,394.01438,753.59451,916.20
Payout Ratio67.24%71.79%76.35%80.90%85.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)255,750.00280,976.35307,450.26335,222.84364,347.16394,878.23418,022.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.28%-0.28%-0.28%
Growth Rate1.90%2.90%3.90%
Year 1 PV (M)279,024.73281,762.99284,501.25
Year 2 PV (M)303,194.08309,174.18315,212.67
Year 3 PV (M)328,286.03338,046.26347,998.06
Year 4 PV (M)354,329.34368,444.52382,977.28
Year 5 PV (M)381,353.60400,436.89420,276.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,370,515.4042,390,694.4744,490,949.44
Equity Value (M)42,016,703.1744,088,559.3146,241,915.32
Shares Outstanding (M)3,410.003,410.003,410.00
Fair Value$12,321.61$12,929.20$13,560.68
Upside / Downside1,358.18%1,430.08%1,504.81%

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