DDM Analysis: TGT

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$121.65 - $222.89	$163.50
Multi-Stage	$126.27 - $137.92	$131.99
Blended Fair Value	$147.75
Current Price	$92.72
Upside	59.35%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	9.00%	5.44%	4.48	4.40	4.02	3.39	2.94	2.91	2.92	2.93	2.95	2.98
YoY Growth	-	-	1.74%	9.53%	18.60%	15.26%	0.98%	-0.37%	-0.22%	-0.74%	-1.03%	13.03%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.60%	2.79%	2.55%	1.48%	1.42%	2.69%	3.85%	4.12%	5.29%	3.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,763.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,050.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,713.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	752.60	470.38	282.23
Cash Retained (M)	1,713.00	1,713.00	1,713.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-752.60	-470.38	-282.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)	960.40	1,242.63	1,430.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	456.55	456.55	456.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.10	2.72	3.13
LTM Dividend per Share	4.49	4.49	4.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.10	2.72	3.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.59	7.21	7.62
WACC / Discount Rate	9.04%	9.04%	9.04%
Growth Rate	3.44%	4.44%	5.44%
Fair Value	$121.65	$163.50	$222.89
Upside / Downside	31.20%	76.34%	140.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,763.00	3,929.95	4,104.31	4,286.41	4,476.59	4,675.20	4,815.46
Payout Ratio	54.48%	61.58%	68.69%	75.79%	82.90%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,050.00	2,420.15	2,819.12	3,248.72	3,710.89	4,207.68	4,454.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.04%	9.04%	9.04%
Growth Rate	3.44%	4.44%	5.44%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,198.19	2,219.44	2,240.69
Year 2 PV (M)	2,325.72	2,370.91	2,416.53
Year 3 PV (M)	2,434.33	2,505.62	2,578.29
Year 4 PV (M)	2,525.62	2,624.71	2,726.70
Year 5 PV (M)	2,601.09	2,729.28	2,862.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)	45,563.43	47,808.91	50,142.06
Equity Value (M)	57,648.39	60,258.87	62,966.73
Shares Outstanding (M)	456.55	456.55	456.55
Fair Value	$126.27	$131.99	$137.92
Upside / Downside	36.18%	42.35%	48.75%

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Target Corporation (TGT)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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