Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tectonic Financial, Inc. (TECTP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$79.23 - $93.35$87.48
Multi-Stage$18.13 - $19.83$18.96
Blended Fair Value$53.22
Current Price$10.84
Upside390.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.94%0.00%0.670.510.480.410.220.200.121.530.000.00
YoY Growth--30.80%7.96%16.63%83.25%9.22%77.18%-92.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.33%5.03%4.76%3.79%2.34%2.72%1.14%15.16%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.650.410.25
Cash Retained (M)0.680.680.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.65-0.41-0.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.020.270.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.976.976.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate5.74%5.74%5.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$79.23$87.48$93.35
Upside / Downside630.90%707.00%761.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3.273.483.713.954.214.484.62
Payout Ratio79.28%81.42%83.57%85.71%87.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.592.843.103.393.704.034.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.74%5.74%5.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2.662.682.71
Year 2 PV (M)2.722.772.83
Year 3 PV (M)2.792.872.95
Year 4 PV (M)2.852.963.07
Year 5 PV (M)2.913.053.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)112.43117.86123.50
Equity Value (M)126.36132.19138.25
Shares Outstanding (M)6.976.976.97
Fair Value$18.13$18.96$19.83
Upside / Downside67.21%74.94%82.95%

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