Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tesco PLC (TCO0.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.95 - $6.19$4.98
Multi-Stage$6.20 - $6.79$6.49
Blended Fair Value$5.74
Current Price$3.76
Upside52.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.66%-0.56%0.120.110.120.100.130.090.050.010.000.00
YoY Growth--11.20%-9.55%17.51%-19.67%38.72%83.75%335.37%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.27%3.96%4.73%3.58%5.39%3.23%1.77%0.43%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,820.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,642.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,178.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)564.00352.50211.50
Cash Retained (M)1,178.001,178.001,178.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-564.00-352.50-211.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)614.00825.50966.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,035.917,035.917,035.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate8.19%8.19%8.19%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Fair Value$3.95$4.98$6.19
Upside / Downside5.18%32.53%64.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,820.002,850.372,881.062,912.092,943.452,975.143,064.40
Payout Ratio58.23%64.58%70.94%77.29%83.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,642.001,840.812,043.722,250.782,462.062,677.632,834.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.19%8.19%8.19%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Year 1 PV (M)1,684.621,701.461,718.29
Year 2 PV (M)1,711.621,745.991,780.71
Year 3 PV (M)1,725.091,777.321,830.60
Year 4 PV (M)1,726.911,796.981,869.15
Year 5 PV (M)1,718.761,806.371,897.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,054.9336,841.6838,700.56
Equity Value (M)43,621.9345,669.8047,796.82
Shares Outstanding (M)7,035.917,035.917,035.91
Fair Value$6.20$6.49$6.79
Upside / Downside64.89%72.63%80.67%

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