Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

The Community Financial Corporation (TCFC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$876.89 - $1,033.13$968.19
Multi-Stage$179.84 - $197.09$188.30
Blended Fair Value$578.25
Current Price$33.13
Upside1,645.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS15.78%10.19%0.660.560.500.470.380.320.320.340.360.28
YoY Growth--18.39%12.45%5.66%23.35%19.90%-0.55%-5.32%-6.76%30.15%11.07%
Dividend Yield--2.00%1.39%1.46%2.14%1.36%0.86%0.89%1.60%1.82%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.873.672.20
Cash Retained (M)25.6225.6225.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.87-3.67-2.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.7521.9523.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.655.655.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.493.884.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.493.884.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.164.554.81
WACC / Discount Rate5.94%5.94%5.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$876.89$968.19$1,033.13
Upside / Downside2,546.83%2,822.41%3,018.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.3631.2633.3035.4637.7740.2241.43
Payout Ratio12.72%28.18%43.63%59.09%74.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.748.8114.5320.9528.1536.2038.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.94%5.94%5.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8.248.328.39
Year 2 PV (M)12.7012.9413.19
Year 3 PV (M)17.1317.6218.12
Year 4 PV (M)21.5222.3523.20
Year 5 PV (M)25.8727.1228.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)930.79975.751,022.42
Equity Value (M)1,016.251,064.101,113.75
Shares Outstanding (M)5.655.655.65
Fair Value$179.84$188.30$197.09
Upside / Downside442.82%468.38%494.90%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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