Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Texas Community Bancshares, Inc. (TCBS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.40 - $15.39$12.07
Multi-Stage$28.73 - $31.71$30.19
Blended Fair Value$21.13
Current Price$16.05
Upside31.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.170.130.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--36.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.500.310.19
Cash Retained (M)2.032.032.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.50-0.31-0.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.531.721.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.942.942.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.590.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.590.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate5.16%5.16%5.16%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$9.40$12.07$15.39
Upside / Downside-41.44%-24.79%-4.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2.522.492.472.442.422.392.47
Payout Ratio19.22%33.38%47.53%61.69%75.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.480.831.171.511.832.162.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.16%5.16%5.16%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)0.780.790.80
Year 2 PV (M)1.041.061.08
Year 3 PV (M)1.261.301.34
Year 4 PV (M)1.441.501.56
Year 5 PV (M)1.591.681.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)78.2182.2986.53
Equity Value (M)84.3388.6193.07
Shares Outstanding (M)2.942.942.94
Fair Value$28.73$30.19$31.71
Upside / Downside79.01%88.10%97.57%

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