Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Tipco Asphalt Public Company Limited (TASCO-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.58 - $7.74$6.66
Multi-Stage$16.64 - $18.34$17.47
Blended Fair Value$12.07
Current Price$14.60
Upside-17.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.40%26.27%0.991.231.041.531.380.690.880.880.680.58
YoY Growth---20.01%19.09%-32.27%10.78%99.91%-21.44%0.41%29.24%17.18%503.67%
Dividend Yield--6.96%7.77%5.29%9.22%6.68%4.02%5.50%5.06%2.63%2.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,600.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,422.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)178.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)320.08200.05120.03
Cash Retained (M)178.04178.04178.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-320.08-200.05-120.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)-142.04-22.0158.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,597.761,597.761,597.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.010.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.010.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate-6.80%-5.80%-4.80%
Fair Value$5.58$6.66$7.74
Upside / Downside-61.80%-54.36%-46.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,600.411,507.611,420.181,337.831,260.251,187.171,222.79
Payout Ratio88.88%89.10%89.33%89.55%89.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,422.371,343.281,268.581,198.031,131.391,068.451,131.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate-6.80%-5.80%-4.80%
Year 1 PV (M)1,246.851,260.231,273.60
Year 2 PV (M)1,092.981,116.561,140.39
Year 3 PV (M)958.09989.261,021.10
Year 4 PV (M)839.84876.47914.29
Year 5 PV (M)736.19776.54818.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,705.0422,894.7124,135.99
Equity Value (M)26,578.9827,913.7729,304.01
Shares Outstanding (M)1,597.761,597.761,597.76
Fair Value$16.64$17.47$18.34
Upside / Downside13.94%19.66%25.62%

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