Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Telekom Austria AG (TA1.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.69 - $157.83$55.15
Multi-Stage$30.45 - $33.35$31.87
Blended Fair Value$43.51
Current Price$9.65
Upside350.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.43%15.65%0.360.320.280.250.230.210.250.250.100.10
YoY Growth--12.76%14.29%12.00%8.70%9.52%-16.66%0.27%148.19%0.18%19.93%
Dividend Yield--4.18%4.13%4.88%4.33%4.14%4.01%4.73%3.93%1.92%2.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)639.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)505.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)133.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.8079.8847.93
Cash Retained (M)133.93133.93133.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.80-79.88-47.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.1354.0686.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)664.08664.08664.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.080.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.760.760.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.080.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.04%6.04%6.04%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Fair Value$30.69$55.15$157.83
Upside / Downside218.04%471.47%1,535.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)639.00667.42697.10728.11760.49794.31818.14
Payout Ratio79.04%81.23%83.42%85.62%87.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)505.07542.16581.55623.38667.77714.88756.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.04%6.04%6.04%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Year 1 PV (M)506.38511.27516.17
Year 2 PV (M)507.31517.17527.12
Year 3 PV (M)507.90522.78537.94
Year 4 PV (M)508.16528.10548.61
Year 5 PV (M)508.10533.14559.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,681.3218,552.6119,457.91
Equity Value (M)20,219.1821,165.0622,146.90
Shares Outstanding (M)664.08664.08664.08
Fair Value$30.45$31.87$33.35
Upside / Downside215.51%230.27%245.59%

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