Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Summit Materials, Inc. (SUM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.59 - $183.09$93.81
Multi-Stage$20.49 - $22.45$21.45
Blended Fair Value$57.63
Current Price$38.71
Upside48.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220222021201920182017201620162014
DPS46.71%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.010.080.180.00
YoY Growth---30.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-96.50%-84.85%-54.64%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.34%0.92%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)147.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)146.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.4718.4211.05
Cash Retained (M)146.90146.90146.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.47-18.42-11.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.42128.48135.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.07160.07160.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.730.800.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.730.800.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.85
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.59$93.81$183.09
Upside / Downside4.84%142.35%372.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)147.37156.94167.15178.01189.58201.90207.96
Payout Ratio0.32%18.25%36.19%54.13%72.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.4728.6560.4996.35136.62181.71192.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)26.4226.6726.92
Year 2 PV (M)51.4552.4353.42
Year 3 PV (M)75.5877.7479.96
Year 4 PV (M)98.83102.63106.54
Year 5 PV (M)121.22127.08133.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,906.993,047.403,193.18
Equity Value (M)3,280.483,433.953,593.17
Shares Outstanding (M)160.07160.07160.07
Fair Value$20.49$21.45$22.45
Upside / Downside-47.06%-44.58%-42.01%

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