Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sermsang Power Corporation Public Company Limited (SSP-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.45 - $8.82$6.97
Multi-Stage$15.64 - $17.25$16.43
Blended Fair Value$11.70
Current Price$3.46
Upside238.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.46%0.00%0.100.060.210.010.080.160.150.000.000.00
YoY Growth--68.53%-70.90%2,460.39%-89.90%-49.31%5.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.01%0.74%2.41%0.09%0.71%3.51%2.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)650.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)250.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)399.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)130.0281.2648.76
Cash Retained (M)399.97399.97399.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-130.02-81.26-48.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)269.96318.71351.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,264.991,264.991,264.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate5.39%5.39%5.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.45$6.97$8.82
Upside / Downside57.55%101.31%154.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)650.09643.59637.16630.79624.48618.23636.78
Payout Ratio38.47%48.78%59.08%69.39%79.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)250.12313.94376.46437.70497.68556.41589.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.39%5.39%5.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)294.87297.88300.89
Year 2 PV (M)332.12338.93345.81
Year 3 PV (M)362.69373.91385.35
Year 4 PV (M)387.34403.39419.94
Year 5 PV (M)406.75427.93449.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,006.2918,943.9219,920.21
Equity Value (M)19,790.0620,785.9621,822.18
Shares Outstanding (M)1,264.991,264.991,264.99
Fair Value$15.64$16.43$17.25
Upside / Downside352.15%374.91%398.58%

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