Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

SR Bancorp, Inc. Common stock (SRBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.01 - $7.74$6.28
Multi-Stage$10.97 - $12.10$11.53
Blended Fair Value$8.90
Current Price$15.09
Upside-41.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.890.560.33
Cash Retained (M)4.034.034.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.89-0.56-0.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.143.483.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.228.228.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.420.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.420.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.01$6.28$7.74
Upside / Downside-66.77%-58.38%-48.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.464.424.374.334.294.244.37
Payout Ratio9.61%25.69%41.77%57.85%73.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.431.131.832.503.173.824.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1.061.071.08
Year 2 PV (M)1.581.611.64
Year 3 PV (M)2.012.072.14
Year 4 PV (M)2.372.462.57
Year 5 PV (M)2.652.792.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)80.5884.7789.14
Equity Value (M)90.2494.7899.50
Shares Outstanding (M)8.228.228.22
Fair Value$10.97$11.53$12.10
Upside / Downside-27.28%-23.62%-19.82%

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