DDM Analysis: SQU.DE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,494.96 - $3,243.63	$3,039.76
Multi-Stage	$495.55 - $542.10	$518.40
Blended Fair Value	$1,779.08
Current Price	$125.10
Upside	1,322.12%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.31%	7.33%	4.47	3.99	3.18	2.66	1.21	2.62	2.42	2.08	1.83	1.77
YoY Growth	-	-	12.03%	25.36%	19.76%	120.17%	-53.86%	8.12%	16.21%	13.78%	3.24%	-19.57%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.48%	3.51%	3.41%	2.86%	1.48%	2.64%	3.36%	2.45%	2.83%	3.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	9,372.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5,247.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4,125.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,874.40	1,171.50	702.90
Cash Retained (M)	4,125.00	4,125.00	4,125.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,874.40	-1,171.50	-702.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,250.60	2,953.50	3,422.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	574.62	574.62	574.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.92	5.14	5.96
LTM Dividend per Share	9.13	9.13	9.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.92	5.14	5.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend	13.05	14.27	15.09
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$1,494.96	$3,039.76	$3,243.63
Upside / Downside	1,095.01%	2,329.86%	2,492.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	9,372.00	9,981.18	10,629.96	11,320.90	12,056.76	12,840.45	13,225.67
Payout Ratio	55.99%	62.79%	69.59%	76.39%	83.20%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5,247.00	6,267.06	7,397.55	8,648.53	10,030.89	11,556.41	12,233.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	5,833.64	5,888.94	5,944.23
Year 2 PV (M)	6,409.74	6,531.83	6,655.07
Year 3 PV (M)	6,975.44	7,175.68	7,379.71
Year 4 PV (M)	7,530.86	7,820.48	8,118.37
Year 5 PV (M)	8,076.15	8,466.23	8,871.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)	249,927.41	261,998.99	274,532.59
Equity Value (M)	284,753.25	297,882.16	311,501.22
Shares Outstanding (M)	574.62	574.62	574.62
Fair Value	$495.55	$518.40	$542.10
Upside / Downside	296.12%	314.39%	333.33%

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Vinci S.A. (SQU.DE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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