Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SPIE S.a. (SPIE.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$427.37 - $503.52$471.87
Multi-Stage$293.24 - $321.64$307.18
Blended Fair Value$389.52
Current Price$47.70
Upside716.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.72%0.00%0.860.760.630.540.000.540.530.630.460.00
YoY Growth--13.27%19.67%16.01%0.00%-100.00%2.49%-17.16%38.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.85%2.68%2.59%2.40%0.00%2.96%4.53%2.91%2.30%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)425.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)407.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)85.0353.1431.89
Cash Retained (M)17.5717.5717.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-85.03-53.14-31.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)-67.46-35.58-14.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)167.71167.71167.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.40-0.21-0.09
LTM Dividend per Share2.432.432.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.40-0.21-0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.032.222.34
WACC / Discount Rate2.26%2.26%2.26%
Growth Rate5.36%6.36%7.36%
Fair Value$427.37$471.87$503.52
Upside / Downside795.95%889.25%955.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)425.16452.22481.00511.61544.17578.81596.17
Payout Ratio95.87%94.69%93.52%92.35%91.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)407.59428.23449.83472.46496.14520.93551.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.26%2.26%2.26%
Growth Rate5.36%6.36%7.36%
Year 1 PV (M)414.81418.75422.68
Year 2 PV (M)422.09430.14438.27
Year 3 PV (M)429.43441.78454.35
Year 4 PV (M)436.83453.65470.95
Year 5 PV (M)444.28465.77488.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)47,032.3249,306.9851,668.80
Equity Value (M)49,179.7751,517.0653,943.14
Shares Outstanding (M)167.71167.71167.71
Fair Value$293.24$307.18$321.64
Upside / Downside514.76%543.98%574.30%

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