Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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S. Khonkaen Foods Public Company Limited (SORKON.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.79 - $11.58$8.05
Multi-Stage$9.35 - $10.25$9.79
Blended Fair Value$8.92
Current Price$3.92
Upside127.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.34%0.97%0.200.100.150.200.210.250.220.280.210.21
YoY Growth--98.35%-32.51%-25.29%-1.95%-18.30%13.92%-20.09%33.48%0.00%13.17%
Dividend Yield--4.63%2.40%2.90%4.03%4.17%5.87%3.19%3.92%3.33%3.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.2013.888.33
Cash Retained (M)31.8331.8331.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.20-13.88-8.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.6317.9523.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)318.83318.83318.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.24%6.24%6.24%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Fair Value$5.79$8.05$11.58
Upside / Downside47.73%105.28%195.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.00113.63116.31119.06121.87124.75128.49
Payout Ratio71.33%75.06%78.80%82.53%86.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.1885.2991.6598.26105.13112.28118.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.24%6.24%6.24%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Year 1 PV (M)79.5080.2881.07
Year 2 PV (M)79.6281.2082.80
Year 3 PV (M)79.5781.9584.37
Year 4 PV (M)79.3582.5385.81
Year 5 PV (M)78.9982.9787.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,582.642,712.582,847.69
Equity Value (M)2,979.683,121.513,268.83
Shares Outstanding (M)318.83318.83318.83
Fair Value$9.35$9.79$10.25
Upside / Downside138.41%149.75%161.54%

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