DDM Analysis: SMP

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$42.84 - $76.51	$57.01
Multi-Stage	$52.28 - $57.26	$54.73
Blended Fair Value	$55.87
Current Price	$40.82
Upside	36.86%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.24%	7.85%	1.13	1.12	1.05	0.99	0.50	0.92	0.84	0.77	0.69	0.61
YoY Growth	-	-	0.70%	7.41%	5.63%	97.71%	-45.53%	9.22%	9.06%	11.91%	12.78%	15.05%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.54%	3.36%	2.83%	2.30%	1.20%	2.21%	1.71%	1.62%	1.40%	1.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	69.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	26.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)	42.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	13.81	8.63	5.18
Cash Retained (M)	42.30	42.30	42.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-13.81	-8.63	-5.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)	28.49	33.67	37.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	22.40	22.40	22.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.27	1.50	1.66
LTM Dividend per Share	1.19	1.19	1.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.27	1.50	1.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.47	2.70	2.85
WACC / Discount Rate	8.12%	8.12%	8.12%
Growth Rate	2.24%	3.24%	4.24%
Fair Value	$42.84	$57.01	$76.51
Upside / Downside	4.96%	39.65%	87.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	69.05	71.28	73.59	75.97	78.43	80.97	83.40
Payout Ratio	38.74%	48.99%	59.24%	69.49%	79.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	26.75	34.92	43.59	52.79	62.54	72.87	77.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.12%	8.12%	8.12%
Growth Rate	2.24%	3.24%	4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)	31.98	32.30	32.61
Year 2 PV (M)	36.57	37.29	38.02
Year 3 PV (M)	40.57	41.77	42.99
Year 4 PV (M)	44.02	45.77	47.57
Year 5 PV (M)	46.97	49.32	51.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)	971.03	1,019.45	1,069.79
Equity Value (M)	1,171.14	1,225.89	1,282.73
Shares Outstanding (M)	22.40	22.40	22.40
Fair Value	$52.28	$54.73	$57.26
Upside / Downside	28.08%	34.07%	40.28%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener