Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

SJW Group (SJW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$535.09 - $630.42$590.80
Multi-Stage$141.26 - $154.74$147.87
Blended Fair Value$369.34
Current Price$51.84
Upside612.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.84%13.13%1.511.391.261.161.060.990.670.620.480.46
YoY Growth--8.82%9.92%8.58%9.94%6.96%47.93%8.17%28.82%4.24%4.66%
Dividend Yield--2.77%2.49%1.66%1.67%1.68%1.71%1.10%1.17%1.00%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)109.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)52.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.8613.668.20
Cash Retained (M)52.3752.3752.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.86-13.66-8.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.5138.7144.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.4734.4734.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.121.28
LTM Dividend per Share1.651.651.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.121.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.542.772.93
WACC / Discount Rate5.35%5.35%5.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$535.09$590.80$630.42
Upside / Downside932.19%1,039.66%1,116.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)109.28116.38123.95132.00140.58149.72154.21
Payout Ratio52.08%59.66%67.25%74.83%82.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.9169.4483.3598.78115.86134.75142.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.35%5.35%5.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)65.2965.9166.53
Year 2 PV (M)73.6975.1076.51
Year 3 PV (M)82.1284.4886.88
Year 4 PV (M)90.5794.0597.64
Year 5 PV (M)99.05103.83108.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,458.924,674.294,897.90
Equity Value (M)4,869.645,097.665,334.25
Shares Outstanding (M)34.4734.4734.47
Fair Value$141.26$147.87$154.74
Upside / Downside172.49%185.25%198.49%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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