Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sime Darby Berhad (SIME.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.28 - $61.65$56.16
Multi-Stage$7.92 - $8.66$8.28
Blended Fair Value$32.22
Current Price$2.13
Upside1,412.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.28%0.84%0.140.140.100.120.090.090.060.190.110.11
YoY Growth--3.58%28.81%-12.38%33.33%0.00%50.00%-68.42%74.83%-0.14%-15.65%
Dividend Yield--6.57%6.34%4.92%5.59%3.96%3.61%2.66%7.26%1.20%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,113.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)954.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,159.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)422.60264.13158.48
Cash Retained (M)1,159.001,159.001,159.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-422.60-264.13-158.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)736.40894.881,000.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,816.006,816.006,816.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.28$56.16$61.65
Upside / Downside711.14%2,536.68%2,794.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,113.002,250.352,396.622,552.402,718.302,894.992,981.84
Payout Ratio45.15%54.12%63.09%72.06%81.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)954.001,217.871,512.011,839.252,202.642,605.492,758.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,127.361,138.041,148.73
Year 2 PV (M)1,295.621,320.301,345.21
Year 3 PV (M)1,458.891,500.771,543.44
Year 4 PV (M)1,617.281,679.481,743.45
Year 5 PV (M)1,770.901,856.431,945.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,699.3248,954.9151,296.83
Equity Value (M)53,969.3656,449.9359,022.90
Shares Outstanding (M)6,816.006,816.006,816.00
Fair Value$7.92$8.28$8.66
Upside / Downside271.74%288.83%306.55%

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