DDM Analysis: SICO.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$89.73 - $128.79	$108.83
Multi-Stage	$147.42 - $161.66	$154.40
Blended Fair Value	$131.62
Current Price	$112.00
Upside	17.51%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	5.00	4.00	2.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	25.04%	99.82%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.00%	4.08%	1.37%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	11,705.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5,460.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,244.69

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,341.02	1,463.13	877.88
Cash Retained (M)	6,244.69	6,244.69	6,244.69
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,341.02	-1,463.13	-877.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,903.67	4,781.55	5,366.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	910.06	910.06	910.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share	4.29	5.25	5.90
LTM Dividend per Share	6.00	6.00	6.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	4.29	5.25	5.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend	10.29	11.25	11.90
WACC / Discount Rate	9.24%	9.24%	9.24%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$89.73	$108.83	$128.79
Upside / Downside	-19.88%	-2.83%	14.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	11,705.08	11,588.03	11,472.15	11,357.42	11,243.85	11,131.41	11,465.35
Payout Ratio	46.65%	55.32%	63.99%	72.66%	81.33%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5,460.39	6,410.47	7,341.01	8,252.29	9,144.62	10,018.27	10,605.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.24%	9.24%	9.24%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	5,809.09	5,868.37	5,927.64
Year 2 PV (M)	6,028.26	6,151.91	6,276.82
Year 3 PV (M)	6,140.85	6,330.76	6,524.55
Year 4 PV (M)	6,166.48	6,422.05	6,685.49
Year 5 PV (M)	6,121.85	6,440.62	6,772.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)	103,893.23	109,303.19	114,936.21
Equity Value (M)	134,159.75	140,516.90	147,123.25
Shares Outstanding (M)	910.06	910.06	910.06
Fair Value	$147.42	$154.40	$161.66
Upside / Downside	31.62%	37.86%	44.34%

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PT Sigma Energy Compressindo Tbk (SICO.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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