Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sonic Healthcare Limited (SHL.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.40 - $136.48$77.56
Multi-Stage$45.41 - $49.55$47.44
Blended Fair Value$62.50
Current Price$26.79
Upside133.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.95%6.21%1.071.041.000.950.870.840.780.500.590.46
YoY Growth--2.93%3.97%5.48%9.60%2.93%8.01%55.70%-14.69%28.26%-22.05%
Dividend Yield--4.01%4.07%2.82%2.88%2.26%2.77%2.88%2.04%2.43%2.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,024.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,013.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)204.94128.0976.85
Cash Retained (M)11.2511.2511.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-204.94-128.09-76.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)-193.69-116.84-65.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)478.60478.60478.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.40-0.24-0.14
LTM Dividend per Share2.122.122.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.40-0.24-0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.711.871.98
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate4.21%5.21%6.21%
Fair Value$50.40$77.56$136.48
Upside / Downside88.15%189.52%409.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,024.691,078.071,134.241,193.331,255.501,320.911,360.53
Payout Ratio98.90%97.12%95.34%93.56%91.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,013.451,047.051,081.401,116.491,152.301,188.821,258.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate4.21%5.21%6.21%
Year 1 PV (M)962.49971.73980.97
Year 2 PV (M)913.80931.42949.21
Year 3 PV (M)867.26892.47918.16
Year 4 PV (M)822.80854.84887.80
Year 5 PV (M)780.32818.48858.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,387.3318,237.7419,121.11
Equity Value (M)21,734.0022,706.6823,715.38
Shares Outstanding (M)478.60478.60478.60
Fair Value$45.41$47.44$49.55
Upside / Downside69.51%77.10%84.96%

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