Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

SHAPE Australia Corporation Limited (SHA.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.33 - $45.26$20.62
Multi-Stage$9.40 - $10.28$9.83
Blended Fair Value$15.22
Current Price$4.45
Upside242.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.65%17.95%0.180.140.070.100.150.130.110.080.050.04
YoY Growth--29.75%107.33%-28.96%-34.03%9.46%21.73%37.64%71.45%24.24%5.79%
Dividend Yield--4.12%6.20%4.67%5.08%7.24%6.62%5.44%3.95%2.30%1.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.434.642.79
Cash Retained (M)13.4213.4213.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.43-4.64-2.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.008.7810.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)85.5885.5885.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.60%7.60%7.60%
Growth Rate4.65%5.65%6.65%
Fair Value$12.33$20.62$45.26
Upside / Downside177.14%363.29%917.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.1439.2441.4643.8046.2848.8950.36
Payout Ratio63.86%69.08%74.31%79.54%84.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.7127.1130.8134.8439.2344.0046.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.60%7.60%7.60%
Growth Rate4.65%5.65%6.65%
Year 1 PV (M)24.9525.1925.43
Year 2 PV (M)26.1126.6127.11
Year 3 PV (M)27.1827.9728.77
Year 4 PV (M)28.1729.2730.39
Year 5 PV (M)29.0930.5131.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)669.41702.01735.86
Equity Value (M)804.91841.55879.54
Shares Outstanding (M)85.5885.5885.58
Fair Value$9.40$9.83$10.28
Upside / Downside111.35%120.97%130.94%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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