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Definitive Analysis

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Stifel Financial Corp. (SF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$167.84 - $584.82$276.97
Multi-Stage$108.17 - $118.20$113.09
Blended Fair Value$195.03
Current Price$113.47
Upside71.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.27%0.00%1.721.481.210.600.420.380.310.120.000.00
YoY Growth--16.58%21.86%101.62%42.67%10.84%21.10%153.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.83%1.91%2.05%0.88%0.66%1.38%0.86%0.31%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)663.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)204.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)458.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)132.6882.9349.76
Cash Retained (M)458.98458.98458.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-132.68-82.93-49.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)326.30376.06409.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)110.41110.41110.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.963.413.71
LTM Dividend per Share1.851.851.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.963.413.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.815.265.56
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$167.84$276.97$584.82
Upside / Downside47.91%144.09%415.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)663.42706.55752.47801.38853.47908.95936.22
Payout Ratio30.82%42.65%54.49%66.33%78.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)204.44301.36410.02531.53667.10818.05866.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)275.09277.70280.30
Year 2 PV (M)341.65348.15354.72
Year 3 PV (M)404.28415.89427.71
Year 4 PV (M)463.17480.98499.30
Year 5 PV (M)518.46543.50569.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,939.7910,419.8910,918.36
Equity Value (M)11,942.4312,486.1013,049.90
Shares Outstanding (M)110.41110.41110.41
Fair Value$108.17$113.09$118.20
Upside / Downside-4.67%-0.33%4.17%

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