Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Select Medical Holdings Corporation (SEM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.36 - $13.05$10.52
Multi-Stage$19.69 - $21.69$20.67
Blended Fair Value$15.60
Current Price$12.84
Upside21.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%1.93%0.510.510.510.400.000.000.000.000.000.10
YoY Growth--1.12%-1.06%27.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-75.40%
Dividend Yield--3.08%3.18%3.70%3.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)110.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.0013.758.25
Cash Retained (M)70.1970.1970.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.00-13.75-8.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)48.1956.4461.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)125.56125.56125.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.450.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.450.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.36$10.52$13.05
Upside / Downside-34.86%-18.05%1.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)110.00108.90107.81106.73105.66104.60107.74
Payout Ratio36.19%46.95%57.71%68.48%79.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.8151.1362.2273.0883.7294.1499.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)47.6548.1448.63
Year 2 PV (M)54.0555.1656.28
Year 3 PV (M)59.1761.0062.86
Year 4 PV (M)63.1765.7968.49
Year 5 PV (M)66.2169.6573.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,182.422,296.072,414.39
Equity Value (M)2,472.672,595.802,723.89
Shares Outstanding (M)125.56125.56125.56
Fair Value$19.69$20.67$21.69
Upside / Downside53.37%61.01%68.95%

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