Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Grupo Security S.A. (SECURITY.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,986.22 - $4,696.44$4,401.25
Multi-Stage$1,405.60 - $1,539.43$1,471.28
Blended Fair Value$2,936.27
Current Price$283.89
Upside934.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS10.22%0.00%18.5419.1015.0410.9410.2411.400.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---2.92%27.00%37.46%6.88%-10.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.55%6.95%9.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94,349.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)92,319.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,030.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18,869.9911,793.757,076.25
Cash Retained (M)2,030.682,030.682,030.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-18,869.99-11,793.75-7,076.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)-16,839.31-9,763.06-5,045.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,995.343,995.343,995.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share-4.21-2.44-1.26
LTM Dividend per Share23.1123.1123.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share-4.21-2.44-1.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.8920.6621.84
WACC / Discount Rate4.80%4.80%4.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,986.22$4,401.25$4,696.44
Upside / Downside1,304.14%1,450.34%1,554.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94,349.97100,482.72107,014.10113,970.02121,378.07129,267.64133,145.67
Payout Ratio97.85%96.28%94.71%93.14%91.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)92,319.2996,742.93101,351.58106,150.63111,145.34116,340.88123,159.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.80%4.80%4.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)91,446.4792,313.2693,180.05
Year 2 PV (M)90,557.8392,282.7094,023.84
Year 3 PV (M)89,653.1992,226.8194,849.22
Year 4 PV (M)88,732.3992,144.7895,654.67
Year 5 PV (M)87,795.2492,035.7896,438.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,167,654.935,417,254.595,676,407.02
Equity Value (M)5,615,840.045,878,257.936,150,553.43
Shares Outstanding (M)3,995.343,995.343,995.34
Fair Value$1,405.60$1,471.28$1,539.43
Upside / Downside395.12%418.26%442.26%

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