Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (RYAN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - SpecialtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.16 - $10.92$7.32
Multi-Stage$14.82 - $16.31$15.55
Blended Fair Value$11.43
Current Price$56.36
Upside-79.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS2.11%0.00%0.340.000.170.200.210.300.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-15.32%-6.04%-30.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.46%0.00%0.42%0.51%0.77%1.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.838.655.19
Cash Retained (M)8.628.628.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.83-8.65-5.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.22-0.033.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)237.66237.66237.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate4.63%4.63%4.63%
Growth Rate0.11%1.11%2.11%
Fair Value$5.16$7.32$10.92
Upside / Downside-90.85%-87.01%-80.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69.1769.9470.7171.5072.2973.0975.28
Payout Ratio87.54%88.03%88.52%89.02%89.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.5561.5762.6063.6464.7065.7869.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.63%4.63%4.63%
Growth Rate0.11%1.11%2.11%
Year 1 PV (M)58.2658.8559.43
Year 2 PV (M)56.0657.1958.32
Year 3 PV (M)53.9455.5757.24
Year 4 PV (M)51.8954.0056.17
Year 5 PV (M)49.9352.4755.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,251.263,416.933,589.28
Equity Value (M)3,521.343,695.003,875.55
Shares Outstanding (M)237.66237.66237.66
Fair Value$14.82$15.55$16.31
Upside / Downside-73.71%-72.41%-71.07%

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