Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Rio Tinto Group (RIO1.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$141.18 - $227.29$180.03
Multi-Stage$166.05 - $181.18$173.48
Blended Fair Value$176.75
Current Price$58.53
Upside201.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.43%6.59%4.303.967.189.403.756.323.282.601.672.49
YoY Growth--8.58%-44.83%-23.64%150.44%-40.66%92.94%26.02%55.96%-33.15%9.87%
Dividend Yield--7.32%5.29%10.12%13.88%4.94%10.67%6.91%4.86%4.26%8.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,021.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,566.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,455.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,204.202,627.631,576.58
Cash Retained (M)7,455.007,455.007,455.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,204.20-2,627.63-1,576.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,250.804,827.385,878.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.061,634.061,634.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.992.953.60
LTM Dividend per Share8.308.308.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.992.953.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.2911.2611.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate2.45%3.45%4.45%
Fair Value$141.18$180.03$227.29
Upside / Downside141.21%207.58%288.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,021.0021,745.8322,495.6423,271.3224,073.7324,903.8225,650.94
Payout Ratio64.54%69.63%74.72%79.81%84.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,566.0015,141.2616,809.0318,573.8120,440.3122,413.4423,727.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate2.45%3.45%4.45%
Year 1 PV (M)13,642.1113,775.2713,908.43
Year 2 PV (M)13,645.2613,912.9414,183.22
Year 3 PV (M)13,585.0013,986.7014,396.25
Year 4 PV (M)13,469.9314,003.6014,552.98
Year 5 PV (M)13,307.7913,970.0814,658.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)203,690.98213,828.13224,364.93
Equity Value (M)271,341.06283,476.73296,064.30
Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.061,634.061,634.06
Fair Value$166.05$173.48$181.18
Upside / Downside183.71%196.39%209.56%

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