Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$231.74 - $1,104.38$410.30
Multi-Stage$140.34 - $153.46$146.78
Blended Fair Value$278.54
Current Price$200.58
Upside38.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020202019201820172016
DPS8.05%6.50%1.601.501.401.201.161.091.030.970.930.89
YoY Growth--6.77%7.23%16.75%3.47%6.48%5.92%5.24%4.43%4.56%4.76%
Dividend Yield--0.98%1.22%1.08%0.85%1.07%0.90%0.83%1.27%1.08%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)480.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)115.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)364.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.0260.0136.01
Cash Retained (M)364.87364.87364.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.02-60.01-36.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)268.86304.86328.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.8165.8165.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.094.635.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.751.751.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.094.635.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.846.386.75
WACC / Discount Rate8.16%8.16%8.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$231.74$410.30$1,104.38
Upside / Downside15.54%104.56%450.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)480.08511.28544.52579.91617.61657.75677.48
Payout Ratio24.00%37.20%50.40%63.60%76.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)115.21190.19274.43368.82474.32591.97626.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.16%8.16%8.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)174.19175.84177.49
Year 2 PV (M)230.21234.60239.02
Year 3 PV (M)283.37291.51299.80
Year 4 PV (M)333.78346.62359.82
Year 5 PV (M)381.55399.98419.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,832.528,210.838,603.62
Equity Value (M)9,235.629,659.3710,098.87
Shares Outstanding (M)65.8165.8165.81
Fair Value$140.34$146.78$153.46
Upside / Downside-30.03%-26.82%-23.49%

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