Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qube Holdings Limited (QUB.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.02 - $37.77$35.39
Multi-Stage$5.10 - $5.57$5.33
Blended Fair Value$20.36
Current Price$4.28
Upside375.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.96%13.33%0.090.080.080.060.040.050.080.050.030.03
YoY Growth--10.85%7.82%27.85%53.96%-21.82%-33.90%59.93%46.52%5.32%16.54%
Dividend Yield--2.16%2.30%2.71%2.21%1.24%1.73%2.58%2.05%1.28%1.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)336.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)311.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.2242.0125.21
Cash Retained (M)25.1025.1025.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.22-42.01-25.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)-42.12-16.91-0.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,769.861,769.861,769.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.02$35.39$37.77
Upside / Downside157.45%726.94%782.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)336.10357.95381.21405.99432.38460.49474.30
Payout Ratio92.53%92.03%91.52%91.01%90.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)311.00329.40348.88369.50391.33414.44438.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)305.09307.98310.88
Year 2 PV (M)299.29304.99310.74
Year 3 PV (M)293.58302.01310.60
Year 4 PV (M)287.98299.05310.44
Year 5 PV (M)282.47296.12310.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,561.597,926.828,306.02
Equity Value (M)9,030.009,436.979,858.96
Shares Outstanding (M)1,769.861,769.861,769.86
Fair Value$5.10$5.33$5.57
Upside / Downside19.21%24.58%30.15%

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