DDM Analysis: QUAD

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.62 - $2.16	$1.90
Multi-Stage	$11.10 - $12.38	$11.73
Blended Fair Value	$6.81
Current Price	$6.26
Upside	8.85%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-30.29%	-17.08%	0.19	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.19	1.15	1.26	1.26	1.23	1.25
YoY Growth	-	-	9,300.00%	-92.86%	0.00%	-85.26%	-83.36%	-9.22%	0.64%	2.29%	-1.93%	1.80%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.46%	0.04%	0.66%	0.41%	5.40%	45.50%	10.40%	4.95%	4.86%	9.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	20.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	13.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)	7.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	4.12	2.58	1.55
Cash Retained (M)	7.30	7.30	7.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-4.12	-2.58	-1.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.18	4.73	5.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	49.80	49.80	49.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.09	0.12
LTM Dividend per Share	0.27	0.27	0.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.09	0.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.33	0.36	0.38
WACC / Discount Rate	4.54%	4.54%	4.54%
Growth Rate	-13.18%	-12.18%	-11.18%
Fair Value	$1.62	$1.90	$2.16
Upside / Downside	-74.09%	-69.62%	-65.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	20.60	18.09	15.89	13.95	12.25	10.76	11.08
Payout Ratio	64.56%	69.65%	74.74%	79.83%	84.91%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	13.30	12.60	11.87	11.14	10.40	9.68	10.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.54%	4.54%	4.54%
Growth Rate	-13.18%	-12.18%	-11.18%
Year 1 PV (M)	11.92	12.05	12.19
Year 2 PV (M)	10.62	10.87	11.11
Year 3 PV (M)	9.42	9.75	10.09
Year 4 PV (M)	8.32	8.71	9.12
Year 5 PV (M)	7.33	7.76	8.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)	505.05	534.81	565.96
Equity Value (M)	552.65	583.95	616.68
Shares Outstanding (M)	49.80	49.80	49.80
Fair Value	$11.10	$11.73	$12.38
Upside / Downside	77.28%	87.31%	97.81%

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Quad/Graphics, Inc. (QUAD)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener