Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) (QNBK.QA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$99.90 - $366.74$307.97
Multi-Stage$46.32 - $50.66$48.45
Blended Fair Value$178.21
Current Price$17.35
Upside927.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.34%6.36%0.990.600.550.450.600.600.600.320.270.57
YoY Growth--63.49%9.08%22.02%-24.77%-0.09%-0.14%89.24%18.70%-52.81%7.05%
Dividend Yield--6.12%4.23%3.44%1.96%3.35%3.59%3.34%2.41%1.84%4.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,955.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,443.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,512.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,391.182,119.491,271.69
Cash Retained (M)10,512.2910,512.2910,512.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,391.18-2,119.49-1,271.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,121.118,392.819,240.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,194.929,194.929,194.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.770.911.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.770.911.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.481.611.71
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$99.90$307.97$366.74
Upside / Downside475.77%1,675.04%2,013.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,955.8918,058.0219,231.7920,481.8621,813.1823,231.0423,927.97
Payout Ratio38.00%48.40%58.80%69.20%79.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,443.608,740.3911,308.5414,173.6217,363.3820,907.9322,133.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8,087.508,164.168,240.82
Year 2 PV (M)9,682.209,866.6210,052.78
Year 3 PV (M)11,228.7711,551.1111,879.55
Year 4 PV (M)12,728.2713,217.7713,721.24
Year 5 PV (M)14,181.7614,866.7415,577.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)369,961.05387,830.31406,383.47
Equity Value (M)425,869.56445,496.71465,855.81
Shares Outstanding (M)9,194.929,194.929,194.92
Fair Value$46.32$48.45$50.66
Upside / Downside166.95%179.25%192.01%

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