Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Marcopolo S.A. (POMO3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.74 - $202.17$64.46
Multi-Stage$21.01 - $22.95$21.96
Blended Fair Value$43.21
Current Price$8.91
Upside384.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS51.56%18.46%0.560.290.080.010.060.070.030.010.100.07
YoY Growth--97.55%278.05%436.82%-76.36%-15.61%144.64%97.72%-85.53%36.23%-28.68%
Dividend Yield--9.20%4.09%3.28%0.79%3.30%4.46%1.22%0.62%6.45%5.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,197.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)697.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)499.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)239.41149.6389.78
Cash Retained (M)499.12499.12499.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-239.41-149.63-89.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)259.71349.49409.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,177.561,177.561,177.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.300.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.300.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.74$64.46$202.17
Upside / Downside289.92%623.48%2,169.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,197.071,274.881,357.751,446.001,539.991,640.091,689.30
Payout Ratio58.30%64.64%70.98%77.32%83.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)697.95824.13963.771,118.081,288.371,476.081,562.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)756.14763.30770.47
Year 2 PV (M)811.29826.74842.34
Year 3 PV (M)863.53888.32913.58
Year 4 PV (M)912.95948.06984.17
Year 5 PV (M)959.661,006.011,054.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,442.5821,429.9722,455.14
Equity Value (M)24,746.1525,862.4127,019.85
Shares Outstanding (M)1,177.561,177.561,177.56
Fair Value$21.01$21.96$22.95
Upside / Downside135.86%146.50%157.53%

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