Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Panjawattana Plastic Public Company Limited (PJW.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.07 - $25.61$11.78
Multi-Stage$8.00 - $8.78$8.38
Blended Fair Value$10.08
Current Price$2.12
Upside375.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.13%3.04%0.120.050.080.190.060.070.000.120.090.00
YoY Growth--142.61%-35.20%-59.76%192.80%-12.53%424,527.71%-99.99%29.99%326,949.95%-99.97%
Dividend Yield--5.33%1.62%1.73%3.96%1.78%8.40%0.00%5.51%3.16%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)158.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)105.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.7819.8611.92
Cash Retained (M)105.65105.65105.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.78-19.86-11.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.8785.7993.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)623.95623.95623.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.24
WACC / Discount Rate5.92%5.92%5.92%
Growth Rate2.95%3.95%4.95%
Fair Value$7.07$11.78$25.61
Upside / Downside233.59%455.87%1,107.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)158.88165.16171.68178.47185.52192.85198.63
Payout Ratio33.50%44.80%56.10%67.40%78.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.2374.0096.32120.29146.00173.56183.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.92%5.92%5.92%
Growth Rate2.95%3.95%4.95%
Year 1 PV (M)69.1969.8670.53
Year 2 PV (M)84.2185.8687.52
Year 3 PV (M)98.34101.24104.19
Year 4 PV (M)111.61116.01120.54
Year 5 PV (M)124.06130.21136.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,502.964,725.954,957.68
Equity Value (M)4,990.395,229.125,477.05
Shares Outstanding (M)623.95623.95623.95
Fair Value$8.00$8.38$8.78
Upside / Downside277.26%295.31%314.06%

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