Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$298.22 - $769.09$452.03
Multi-Stage$201.53 - $220.41$210.80
Blended Fair Value$331.42
Current Price$132.13
Upside150.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.51%8.29%0.830.700.710.730.640.610.510.560.620.57
YoY Growth--17.72%-1.15%-2.52%13.56%6.40%17.62%-7.74%-9.56%7.51%53.29%
Dividend Yield--0.81%0.60%1.22%1.75%1.23%2.71%1.84%1.89%2.62%3.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,630.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)175.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,454.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)526.07328.79197.28
Cash Retained (M)2,454.962,454.962,454.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-526.07-328.79-197.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,928.892,126.172,257.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)202.17202.17202.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.5410.5211.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.5410.5211.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.4111.3812.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$298.22$452.03$769.09
Upside / Downside125.70%242.11%482.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,630.362,801.332,983.413,177.343,383.863,603.813,711.93
Payout Ratio6.67%23.33%40.00%56.67%73.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)175.39653.671,193.391,800.512,481.513,243.433,433.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)593.08598.70604.32
Year 2 PV (M)982.391,001.101,019.99
Year 3 PV (M)1,344.771,383.371,422.71
Year 4 PV (M)1,681.591,746.261,812.77
Year 5 PV (M)1,994.162,090.482,190.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,147.0435,796.3537,508.79
Equity Value (M)40,743.0242,616.2644,559.06
Shares Outstanding (M)202.17202.17202.17
Fair Value$201.53$210.80$220.41
Upside / Downside52.53%59.54%66.81%

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