DDM Analysis: PGW.NZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.13 - $1.60	$1.37
Multi-Stage	$2.94 - $3.24	$3.09
Blended Fair Value	$2.23
Current Price	$2.09
Upside	6.57%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-31.47%	-26.67%	0.03	0.10	0.29	0.31	0.12	0.17	0.22	0.39	0.39	0.38
YoY Growth	-	-	-75.54%	-64.25%	-6.94%	149.72%	-25.64%	-23.65%	-43.89%	0.32%	1.48%	-31.79%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.20%	5.81%	7.03%	7.06%	3.64%	6.16%	4.11%	5.89%	6.68%	9.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	13.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	9.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4.07

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2.75	1.72	1.03
Cash Retained (M)	4.07	4.07	4.07
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2.75	-1.72	-1.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1.32	2.35	3.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	75.48	75.48	75.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.15	0.16	0.17
WACC / Discount Rate	6.92%	6.92%	6.92%
Growth Rate	-5.23%	-4.23%	-3.23%
Fair Value	$1.13	$1.37	$1.60
Upside / Downside	-45.70%	-34.60%	-23.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	13.73	13.15	12.59	12.06	11.55	11.06	11.39
Payout Ratio	70.38%	74.31%	78.23%	82.15%	86.08%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	9.66	9.77	9.85	9.91	9.94	9.95	10.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.92%	6.92%	6.92%
Growth Rate	-5.23%	-4.23%	-3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)	9.04	9.14	9.23
Year 2 PV (M)	8.44	8.62	8.80
Year 3 PV (M)	7.85	8.10	8.36
Year 4 PV (M)	7.29	7.61	7.93
Year 5 PV (M)	6.76	7.12	7.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)	182.66	192.50	202.76
Equity Value (M)	222.04	233.09	244.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	75.48	75.48	75.48
Fair Value	$2.94	$3.09	$3.24
Upside / Downside	40.75%	47.75%	55.03%

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PGG Wrightson Limited (PGW.NZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener