Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Prodigy Public Company Limited (PDG.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.03 - $2.94$2.48
Multi-Stage$4.39 - $4.81$4.60
Blended Fair Value$3.54
Current Price$2.78
Upside27.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.26%3.73%0.170.060.150.290.180.180.200.230.200.16
YoY Growth--182.99%-60.73%-47.02%60.36%-0.62%-9.46%-12.22%13.64%22.22%39.26%
Dividend Yield--6.37%2.40%4.68%7.76%5.25%7.82%7.74%6.73%4.94%4.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)85.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.0610.666.40
Cash Retained (M)8.238.238.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.06-10.66-6.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)-8.83-2.431.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)296.88296.88296.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate7.66%7.66%7.66%
Growth Rate-3.26%-2.26%-1.26%
Fair Value$2.03$2.48$2.94
Upside / Downside-26.80%-10.96%5.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)85.3283.3981.5079.6577.8576.0878.37
Payout Ratio90.35%90.28%90.21%90.14%90.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.0875.2873.5271.8070.1268.4872.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.66%7.66%7.66%
Growth Rate-3.26%-2.26%-1.26%
Year 1 PV (M)69.2169.9270.64
Year 2 PV (M)62.1363.4264.73
Year 3 PV (M)55.7857.5359.31
Year 4 PV (M)50.0852.1854.35
Year 5 PV (M)44.9647.3349.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,020.461,074.301,130.40
Equity Value (M)1,302.621,364.701,429.24
Shares Outstanding (M)296.88296.88296.88
Fair Value$4.39$4.60$4.81
Upside / Downside57.83%65.35%73.18%

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