Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Patterson Companies, Inc. (PDCO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.80 - $27.00$21.41
Multi-Stage$22.79 - $24.92$23.83
Blended Fair Value$22.62
Current Price$30.93
Upside-26.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.23%1.39%1.101.141.130.841.131.121.111.081.020.92
YoY Growth---2.97%0.23%34.49%-25.15%0.98%0.27%3.43%5.86%10.81%-4.55%
Dividend Yield--4.19%3.49%3.65%2.52%4.50%5.69%4.68%2.55%2.06%1.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)92.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7617.3510.41
Cash Retained (M)46.3046.3046.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.76-17.35-10.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.5428.9535.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)89.1789.1789.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.320.40
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.320.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.251.361.44
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate1.34%2.34%3.34%
Fair Value$16.80$21.41$27.00
Upside / Downside-45.68%-30.79%-12.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.78142.02145.33148.73152.20155.75160.43
Payout Ratio66.64%71.31%75.98%80.66%85.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)92.48101.27110.43119.96129.87140.18148.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate1.34%2.34%3.34%
Year 1 PV (M)92.1393.0493.95
Year 2 PV (M)91.4093.2195.04
Year 3 PV (M)90.3293.0295.78
Year 4 PV (M)88.9692.5396.20
Year 5 PV (M)87.3691.7696.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,582.101,661.721,744.51
Equity Value (M)2,032.282,125.282,221.80
Shares Outstanding (M)89.1789.1789.17
Fair Value$22.79$23.83$24.92
Upside / Downside-26.31%-22.94%-19.44%

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