Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,786.35 - $2,824.35$2,646.83
Multi-Stage$460.73 - $504.48$482.20
Blended Fair Value$1,564.52
Current Price$163.04
Upside859.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.97%14.56%4.132.852.322.141.021.971.821.631.431.28
YoY Growth--45.11%22.71%8.14%109.25%-47.94%7.92%11.81%13.99%12.15%20.28%
Dividend Yield--2.87%1.77%1.64%2.29%1.28%7.03%4.08%3.68%3.06%3.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)943.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)332.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)611.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)188.74117.9670.78
Cash Retained (M)611.30611.30611.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-188.74-117.96-70.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)422.56493.34540.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.4566.4566.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.367.428.13
LTM Dividend per Share5.005.005.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.367.428.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.3612.4313.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.17%6.17%6.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,786.35$2,646.83$2,824.35
Upside / Downside995.65%1,523.43%1,632.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)943.701,005.041,070.371,139.941,214.041,292.951,331.74
Payout Ratio35.22%46.18%57.13%68.09%79.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)332.40464.11611.54776.18959.631,163.661,231.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.17%6.17%6.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)433.03437.14441.24
Year 2 PV (M)532.38542.52552.75
Year 3 PV (M)630.45648.55666.99
Year 4 PV (M)727.26755.23784.00
Year 5 PV (M)822.83862.57903.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,469.5428,796.3330,173.89
Equity Value (M)30,615.4932,042.3433,522.72
Shares Outstanding (M)66.4566.4566.45
Fair Value$460.73$482.20$504.48
Upside / Downside182.59%195.76%209.42%

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