Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.38 - $38.91$29.45
Multi-Stage$21.75 - $23.69$22.70
Blended Fair Value$26.08
Current Price$10.79
Upside141.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.84%6.12%0.570.470.330.180.200.280.100.000.000.24
YoY Growth--21.00%44.19%81.47%-8.21%-28.21%187.88%8,150.00%0.00%-99.52%-23.58%
Dividend Yield--5.32%4.34%3.91%3.16%4.38%4.71%1.29%0.01%0.02%4.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,878.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,810.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,068.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)575.60359.75215.85
Cash Retained (M)1,068.001,068.001,068.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-575.60-359.75-215.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)492.40708.25852.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,726.401,726.401,726.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.410.49
LTM Dividend per Share1.051.051.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.410.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.461.54
WACC / Discount Rate10.33%10.33%10.33%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Fair Value$22.38$29.45$38.91
Upside / Downside107.38%172.98%260.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,878.003,025.433,180.423,343.353,514.623,694.663,805.50
Payout Ratio62.89%68.31%73.73%79.16%84.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,810.002,066.762,345.072,646.472,972.603,325.203,520.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.33%10.33%10.33%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Year 1 PV (M)1,855.451,873.271,891.09
Year 2 PV (M)1,890.061,926.541,963.37
Year 3 PV (M)1,914.911,970.612,027.39
Year 4 PV (M)1,930.982,006.242,083.67
Year 5 PV (M)1,939.192,034.112,132.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,010.9729,382.1530,806.51
Equity Value (M)37,541.5639,192.9240,904.75
Shares Outstanding (M)1,726.401,726.401,726.40
Fair Value$21.75$22.70$23.69
Upside / Downside101.53%110.40%119.59%

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