Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Old National Bancorp (ONB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$106.78 - $360.77$338.10
Multi-Stage$46.98 - $51.41$49.15
Blended Fair Value$193.62
Current Price$21.95
Upside782.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.40%14.78%0.570.540.530.280.280.270.250.220.200.17
YoY Growth--6.18%1.36%91.34%-0.13%3.88%8.90%13.16%7.50%21.57%15.30%
Dividend Yield--2.70%3.23%3.68%1.70%1.44%2.03%1.46%1.28%1.16%1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)606.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)215.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)391.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.3075.8145.49
Cash Retained (M)391.34391.34391.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.30-75.81-45.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)270.04315.53345.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)334.34334.34334.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.941.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.941.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.451.591.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.93%6.93%6.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$106.78$338.10$360.77
Upside / Downside386.48%1,440.30%1,543.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)606.51645.93687.92732.63780.25830.97855.90
Payout Ratio35.48%46.38%57.29%68.19%79.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)215.16299.59394.08499.58617.14747.87791.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.93%6.93%6.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)277.53280.16282.79
Year 2 PV (M)338.19344.63351.13
Year 3 PV (M)397.17408.57420.18
Year 4 PV (M)454.50471.98489.96
Year 5 PV (M)510.23534.87560.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,730.5314,393.7215,082.29
Equity Value (M)15,708.1516,433.9317,186.82
Shares Outstanding (M)334.34334.34334.34
Fair Value$46.98$49.15$51.41
Upside / Downside114.05%123.94%134.19%

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