Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Organon & Co. (OGN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.48 - $21.15$17.70
Multi-Stage$25.05 - $27.53$26.26
Blended Fair Value$21.98
Current Price$10.68
Upside105.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%1.141.131.110.560.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1.02%1.38%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.66%6.10%4.73%1.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)501.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)158.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)343.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.2062.6337.58
Cash Retained (M)343.00343.00343.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.20-62.63-37.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)242.80280.38305.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)260.42260.42260.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.931.081.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.931.081.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.541.681.78
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.48$17.70$21.15
Upside / Downside35.61%65.76%98.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)501.00495.99491.03486.12481.26476.45490.74
Payout Ratio31.54%43.23%54.92%66.61%78.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)158.00214.41269.68323.83376.86428.80453.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)195.78197.77199.77
Year 2 PV (M)224.84229.45234.11
Year 3 PV (M)246.51254.13261.91
Year 4 PV (M)261.95272.80283.99
Year 5 PV (M)272.14286.31301.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,321.695,598.805,887.34
Equity Value (M)6,522.906,839.277,168.19
Shares Outstanding (M)260.42260.42260.42
Fair Value$25.05$26.26$27.53
Upside / Downside134.53%145.90%157.73%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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