Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$346.32 - $606.97$568.82
Multi-Stage$95.52 - $104.65$100.00
Blended Fair Value$334.41
Current Price$25.21
Upside1,226.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.22%5.19%0.450.440.390.340.300.300.270.270.270.27
YoY Growth--2.58%11.18%15.88%12.38%-0.06%9.90%1.21%0.19%-0.09%0.41%
Dividend Yield--1.91%1.83%1.78%1.69%1.96%2.41%2.01%1.93%2.28%2.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.274.542.73
Cash Retained (M)30.6730.6730.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.27-4.54-2.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.4026.1327.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.9111.9111.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.962.192.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.962.192.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.442.672.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.24%6.24%6.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$346.32$568.82$606.97
Upside / Downside1,273.74%2,156.32%2,307.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.3538.7141.2343.9146.7649.8051.29
Payout Ratio15.62%30.50%45.37%60.25%75.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.6811.8118.7126.4535.1344.8247.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.24%6.24%6.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11.0111.1111.22
Year 2 PV (M)16.2616.5716.88
Year 3 PV (M)21.4422.0622.69
Year 4 PV (M)26.5527.5728.62
Year 5 PV (M)31.5833.1134.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,030.741,080.531,132.22
Equity Value (M)1,137.591,190.951,246.32
Shares Outstanding (M)11.9111.9111.91
Fair Value$95.52$100.00$104.65
Upside / Downside278.89%296.67%315.11%

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