Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.05 - $18.68$15.12
Multi-Stage$27.73 - $30.53$29.10
Blended Fair Value$22.11
Current Price$14.42
Upside53.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.580.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)198.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.7624.8514.91
Cash Retained (M)107.30107.30107.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.76-24.85-14.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.5482.4592.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)154.55154.55154.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.530.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.530.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.031.131.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.37%6.37%6.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.05$15.12$18.68
Upside / Downside-16.45%4.85%29.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)198.80196.81194.84192.90190.97189.06194.73
Payout Ratio46.03%54.82%63.62%72.41%81.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91.50107.89123.95139.68155.07170.15180.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.37%6.37%6.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)100.41101.43102.46
Year 2 PV (M)107.35109.55111.77
Year 3 PV (M)112.57116.06119.61
Year 4 PV (M)116.31121.13126.10
Year 5 PV (M)118.77124.95131.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,730.593,924.854,127.12
Equity Value (M)4,286.004,497.974,718.45
Shares Outstanding (M)154.55154.55154.55
Fair Value$27.73$29.10$30.53
Upside / Downside92.32%101.83%111.72%

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