Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nelnet, Inc. (NNI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$496.84 - $2,318.41$1,108.83
Multi-Stage$496.50 - $545.51$520.54
Blended Fair Value$814.69
Current Price$125.38
Upside549.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.73%8.22%1.121.081.000.950.870.810.740.660.580.52
YoY Growth--3.59%7.68%6.24%8.43%7.78%9.86%11.38%13.73%11.37%2.60%
Dividend Yield--1.01%1.16%1.09%1.11%1.20%1.78%1.32%1.26%1.33%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)433.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)392.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)86.7754.2332.54
Cash Retained (M)392.55392.55392.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-86.77-54.23-32.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)305.77338.31360.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)36.4436.4436.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.399.299.88
LTM Dividend per Share1.131.131.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.399.299.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.5310.4211.01
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate3.24%4.24%5.24%
Fair Value$496.84$1,108.83$2,318.41
Upside / Downside296.27%784.38%1,749.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)433.86452.27471.46491.46512.31534.04550.06
Payout Ratio9.52%25.62%41.71%57.81%73.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.32115.86196.66284.11378.62480.64508.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate3.24%4.24%5.24%
Year 1 PV (M)109.06110.11111.17
Year 2 PV (M)174.24177.63181.05
Year 3 PV (M)236.92243.87250.96
Year 4 PV (M)297.19308.87320.89
Year 5 PV (M)355.10372.64390.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,917.7717,753.1218,621.14
Equity Value (M)18,090.2718,966.2419,876.07
Shares Outstanding (M)36.4436.4436.44
Fair Value$496.50$520.54$545.51
Upside / Downside296.00%315.17%335.09%

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