Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NIC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$201.20 - $485.07$298.45
Multi-Stage$139.74 - $152.75$146.13
Blended Fair Value$222.29
Current Price$134.50
Upside65.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.070.720.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--48.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)144.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)126.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.9718.1110.86
Cash Retained (M)126.61126.61126.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.97-18.11-10.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)97.65108.51115.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.5315.5315.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.296.997.45
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.296.997.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.468.168.63
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$201.20$298.45$485.07
Upside / Downside49.59%121.90%260.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)144.84154.26164.28174.96186.33198.45204.40
Payout Ratio12.58%28.07%43.55%59.03%74.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.2343.3071.55103.29138.85178.60189.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.2039.5739.94
Year 2 PV (M)58.6559.7760.90
Year 3 PV (M)76.6678.8681.10
Year 4 PV (M)93.3196.89100.58
Year 5 PV (M)108.66113.91119.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,794.141,880.801,970.77
Equity Value (M)2,170.622,269.802,372.66
Shares Outstanding (M)15.5315.5315.53
Fair Value$139.74$146.13$152.75
Upside / Downside3.90%8.65%13.57%

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