DDM Analysis: NHI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$30.69 - $47.90	$38.62
Multi-Stage	$57.29 - $62.91	$60.05
Blended Fair Value	$49.33
Current Price	$79.50
Upside	-37.94%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-2.73%	4.51%	3.37	3.36	3.48	3.94	4.19	3.87	3.56	3.30	2.98	2.68
YoY Growth	-	-	0.17%	-3.42%	-11.55%	-6.00%	8.26%	8.68%	8.07%	10.66%	10.95%	23.85%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.56%	5.45%	6.75%	6.67%	5.80%	7.82%	4.55%	4.90%	4.10%	4.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	147.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	80.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)	66.88

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	29.45	18.41	11.04
Cash Retained (M)	66.88	66.88	66.88
(-) Cash Required (M)	-29.45	-18.41	-11.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)	37.43	48.47	55.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	46.44	46.44	46.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.81	1.04	1.20
LTM Dividend per Share	1.73	1.73	1.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.81	1.04	1.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.54	2.77	2.93
WACC / Discount Rate	7.24%	7.24%	7.24%
Growth Rate	-0.95%	0.05%	1.05%
Fair Value	$30.69	$38.62	$47.90
Upside / Downside	-61.40%	-51.42%	-39.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	147.26	147.33	147.41	147.49	147.57	147.65	152.07
Payout Ratio	54.58%	61.67%	68.75%	75.83%	82.92%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	80.38	90.86	101.35	111.85	122.36	132.88	140.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.24%	7.24%	7.24%
Growth Rate	-0.95%	0.05%	1.05%
Year 1 PV (M)	83.88	84.72	85.57
Year 2 PV (M)	86.37	88.12	89.89
Year 3 PV (M)	88.00	90.69	93.43
Year 4 PV (M)	88.87	92.51	96.27
Year 5 PV (M)	89.10	93.68	98.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,224.27	2,338.83	2,458.07
Equity Value (M)	2,660.48	2,788.57	2,921.70
Shares Outstanding (M)	46.44	46.44	46.44
Fair Value	$57.29	$60.05	$62.91
Upside / Downside	-27.94%	-24.47%	-20.86%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener