Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.79 - $181.45$132.09
Multi-Stage$99.57 - $108.87$104.13
Blended Fair Value$118.11
Current Price$107.01
Upside10.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.44%7.05%2.372.282.212.052.042.001.911.811.651.35
YoY Growth--3.95%2.76%8.04%0.34%2.28%4.63%5.63%9.47%22.31%12.75%
Dividend Yield--2.55%2.46%3.81%2.92%2.62%2.78%2.53%3.03%2.32%2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)101.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)63.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.2512.667.59
Cash Retained (M)63.0663.0663.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.25-12.66-7.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.8150.4055.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.6315.6315.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.743.233.55
LTM Dividend per Share2.442.442.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.743.233.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.185.675.99
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate3.43%4.43%5.43%
Fair Value$97.79$132.09$181.45
Upside / Downside-8.61%23.43%69.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)101.25105.73110.42115.31120.42125.75129.52
Payout Ratio37.72%48.18%58.63%69.09%79.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.1950.9464.7479.6795.79113.18119.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate3.43%4.43%5.43%
Year 1 PV (M)46.3246.7747.22
Year 2 PV (M)53.5454.5855.63
Year 3 PV (M)59.9161.6663.45
Year 4 PV (M)65.5068.0770.72
Year 5 PV (M)70.3873.8577.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,260.171,322.281,386.81
Equity Value (M)1,555.831,627.221,701.29
Shares Outstanding (M)15.6315.6315.63
Fair Value$99.57$104.13$108.87
Upside / Downside-6.96%-2.69%1.74%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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