DDM Analysis: NGVC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$337.03 - $397.07	$372.12
Multi-Stage	$75.02 - $82.20	$78.54
Blended Fair Value	$225.33
Current Price	$40.00
Upside	463.33%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	11.81%	0.00%	0.47	0.39	0.39	0.39	2.21	0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	20.11%	0.85%	0.24%	-82.38%	716.58%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.18%	0.99%	2.44%	4.26%	15.52%	1.97%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	46.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	11.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)	35.44

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.29	5.81	3.48
Cash Retained (M)	35.44	35.44	35.44
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.29	-5.81	-3.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	26.15	29.63	31.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	23.26	23.26	23.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.12	1.27	1.37
LTM Dividend per Share	0.47	0.47	0.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.12	1.27	1.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.60	1.75	1.85
WACC / Discount Rate	5.74%	5.74%	5.74%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$337.03	$372.12	$397.07
Upside / Downside	742.57%	830.29%	892.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	46.44	49.46	52.68	56.10	59.75	63.63	65.54
Payout Ratio	23.70%	36.96%	50.22%	63.48%	76.74%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	11.01	18.28	26.46	35.61	45.85	57.27	60.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.74%	5.74%	5.74%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	17.13	17.29	17.45
Year 2 PV (M)	23.22	23.66	24.11
Year 3 PV (M)	29.29	30.13	30.98
Year 4 PV (M)	35.32	36.68	38.08
Year 5 PV (M)	41.33	43.33	45.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,598.71	1,675.93	1,756.10
Equity Value (M)	1,745.00	1,827.02	1,912.13
Shares Outstanding (M)	23.26	23.26	23.26
Fair Value	$75.02	$78.54	$82.20
Upside / Downside	87.54%	96.36%	105.50%

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Sector

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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