Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Newtek Business Services Corp. 5.50% Notes Due 2026 (NEWTZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$167.29 - $448.71$420.43
Multi-Stage$137.01 - $150.48$143.62
Blended Fair Value$282.02
Current Price$11.45
Upside2,363.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-59.56%0.00%0.020.552.502.721.651.581.261.091.060.59
YoY Growth---96.88%-78.08%-7.98%64.72%4.45%25.70%15.02%3.29%80.66%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.14%4.80%19.56%10.19%6.19%11.97%6.38%6.05%6.24%4.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.867.414.45
Cash Retained (M)33.1233.1233.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.86-7.41-4.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.2725.7128.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.7825.7825.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.821.001.11
LTM Dividend per Share1.011.011.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.821.001.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.842.012.13
WACC / Discount Rate4.61%4.61%4.61%
Growth Rate3.47%4.47%5.47%
Fair Value$167.29$420.43$448.71
Upside / Downside1,361.01%3,571.85%3,818.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.3061.9564.7167.6170.6373.7876.00
Payout Ratio44.14%53.31%62.48%71.65%80.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.1733.0240.4348.4457.0966.4170.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.61%4.61%4.61%
Growth Rate3.47%4.47%5.47%
Year 1 PV (M)31.2731.5731.87
Year 2 PV (M)36.2536.9537.66
Year 3 PV (M)41.1242.3243.55
Year 4 PV (M)45.8847.6749.53
Year 5 PV (M)50.5353.0155.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,327.653,491.593,661.93
Equity Value (M)3,532.683,703.123,880.14
Shares Outstanding (M)25.7825.7825.78
Fair Value$137.01$143.62$150.48
Upside / Downside1,096.59%1,154.32%1,214.28%

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