Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.12 - $22.79$18.74
Multi-Stage$30.02 - $33.04$31.50
Blended Fair Value$25.12
Current Price$13.80
Upside82.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.001.230.000.000.000.000.020.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%6.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)63.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.3111.446.87
Cash Retained (M)63.2763.2763.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.31-11.44-6.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)44.9651.8356.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)51.4851.4851.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.871.011.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.871.011.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.421.561.64
WACC / Discount Rate7.22%7.22%7.22%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.12$18.74$22.79
Upside / Downside9.59%35.83%65.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.5490.6289.7288.8287.9387.0589.66
Payout Ratio30.88%42.70%54.53%66.35%78.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.2738.7048.9258.9368.7478.3582.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.22%7.22%7.22%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)35.7336.0936.46
Year 2 PV (M)41.7042.5643.42
Year 3 PV (M)46.3847.8149.28
Year 4 PV (M)49.9552.0254.15
Year 5 PV (M)52.5655.3058.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,319.231,387.931,459.46
Equity Value (M)1,545.551,621.711,700.91
Shares Outstanding (M)51.4851.4851.48
Fair Value$30.02$31.50$33.04
Upside / Downside117.56%128.28%139.43%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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