Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

MyState Limited (MYS.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.27 - $17.47$11.72
Multi-Stage$18.20 - $20.02$19.09
Blended Fair Value$15.41
Current Price$4.21
Upside266.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.31%1.08%0.180.150.070.160.080.150.150.140.120.15
YoY Growth--25.02%108.91%-56.85%110.93%-48.05%-1.79%4.06%17.84%-18.81%-7.78%
Dividend Yield--4.32%3.88%2.20%3.96%1.64%3.81%3.35%2.92%2.56%3.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.178.865.31
Cash Retained (M)20.9720.9720.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.17-8.86-5.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.8012.1215.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)152.33152.33152.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate5.15%5.15%5.15%
Growth Rate0.62%1.62%2.62%
Fair Value$8.27$11.72$17.47
Upside / Downside96.42%178.48%314.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.8572.0073.1774.3575.5676.7979.09
Payout Ratio70.40%74.32%78.24%82.16%86.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.8853.5157.2461.0965.0469.1173.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.15%5.15%5.15%
Growth Rate0.62%1.62%2.62%
Year 1 PV (M)50.3950.8951.39
Year 2 PV (M)50.7651.7752.80
Year 3 PV (M)51.0152.5454.11
Year 4 PV (M)51.1453.2055.33
Year 5 PV (M)51.1753.7656.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,518.672,646.332,779.12
Equity Value (M)2,773.132,908.503,049.21
Shares Outstanding (M)152.33152.33152.33
Fair Value$18.20$19.09$20.02
Upside / Downside332.40%353.51%375.45%

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