Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.90 - $242.14$111.38
Multi-Stage$26.93 - $29.47$28.17
Blended Fair Value$69.78
Current Price$25.52
Upside173.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.83%13.32%0.270.250.240.230.220.210.200.190.150.10
YoY Growth--5.01%4.72%4.38%4.89%5.14%3.44%6.31%25.42%49.07%34.17%
Dividend Yield--1.04%1.13%1.68%2.15%1.53%1.70%1.70%2.10%1.22%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)191.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)149.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.3423.9614.38
Cash Retained (M)149.80149.80149.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.34-23.96-14.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)111.46125.84135.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)157.45157.45157.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.800.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.800.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.52%7.52%7.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$50.90$111.38$242.14
Upside / Downside99.47%336.44%848.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)191.70204.16217.43231.56246.62262.65270.52
Payout Ratio21.86%35.49%49.11%62.74%76.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.9072.45106.79145.29188.34236.38250.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.52%7.52%7.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)66.7567.3868.01
Year 2 PV (M)90.6592.3894.12
Year 3 PV (M)113.63116.89120.22
Year 4 PV (M)135.71140.93146.30
Year 5 PV (M)156.93164.51172.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,676.483,854.064,038.43
Equity Value (M)4,240.164,436.154,639.46
Shares Outstanding (M)157.45157.45157.45
Fair Value$26.93$28.17$29.47
Upside / Downside5.53%10.40%15.46%

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